BALRavens
-
27
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
83°F
7 mph
49
DENBroncos
-
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
83°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
10
0
10
27
Broncos
0
14
21
14
49
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
510
Total Plays
87
68
Yards / Play
4.5
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.33
Passing Yards
335
445
Comp/Att
34/62(55%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
10.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.59
Rushing Yards
58
65
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
18
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
22
15
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+4.05
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-27
-17
Sack EPA
-5.31
-4.10
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
53
61
Penalty EPA
-6.72
-8.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
-17.7
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5
EPA
EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
31
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
32
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
31
25
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
1
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
13
EPA / Rush
19
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
25
29
Turnover EPA / Game
15
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U