BALRavens
-
13
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
88°F
13 mph
19
DENBroncos
-
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
88°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
3
4
0
7
Broncos
6
3
1
3
13
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
173
219
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
3.0
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.14
Passing Yards
100
150
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.55
-0.30
Rushing Yards
73
69
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
16
Passing 1st downs
4
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
15%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.03
-6.68
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-25
Sack EPA
-3.81
-5.88
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-6.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model70.2%
Spread Pick
Broncos-4.5
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+185
Home nfelo
1,622
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
148.7
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
14
2
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
23
1
EPA / Rush
26
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
8
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12
EPA
EPA / Play
26
21
EPA / Pass
27
24
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
30
32
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U