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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ broncos week 19, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
11-6
38
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
13°F
8 mph
35
DENBroncos
13-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
13°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
8
7
7
7
29
Broncos
8
7
7
7
29

Spread

BAL logo
+9

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
479
398
Total Plays
74
87
Yards / Play
6.5
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.05
Passing Yards
324
273
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.08
Rushing Yards
155
125
Rush Attempts
39
41
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
21
30
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
41%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.05
-14.78
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-2.49
-5.61
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
56
87
Penalty EPA
-7.51
-10.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model83.3%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos-9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.6%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+329
Home nfelo
1,693
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+124.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+19.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
279.3
Model Spread
-12.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
11/04
-1.0
42
11/11
8.0
92
11/18
-1.8
38
11/25
-1.5
39
12/02
-5.0
19
12/09
0.7
54
12/16
-2.5
33
12/23
7.5
91
12/30
-4.9
19
01/06
2.3
64
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Value
Ptile
10/28
7.6
92
11/04
5.6
85
11/11
4.6
79
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
0.7
54
12/02
3.5
72
12/06
-0.7
45
12/16
-0.1
49
12/23
8.3
93
12/30
9.6
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Ravens logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4

EPA

EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
17
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Broncos logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22

EPA

EPA / Play
4
16
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
26
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
4
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
10
W
W
U
11/11
35
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
U
11/25
3
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
19
W
W
U
12/30
-6
L
L
U
01/06
15
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
20
W
W
U
11/04
8
W
W
O
11/11
22
W
W
O
11/18
7
W
L
O
11/25
8
W
L
U
12/02
8
W
L
O
12/06
13
W
W
U
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/23
22
W
W
O
12/30
35
W
W
P