BALRavens
11-6
38
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
13°F
8 mph
35
DENBroncos
13-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
13°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
8
7
7
7
29
Broncos
8
7
7
7
29
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
479
398
Total Plays
74
87
Yards / Play
6.5
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.05
Passing Yards
324
273
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.08
Rushing Yards
155
125
Rush Attempts
39
41
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
30
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
41%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.05
-14.78
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-2.49
-5.61
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
56
87
Penalty EPA
-7.51
-10.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model83.3%
Spread Pick
Broncos-9.0
Expected Value
+18.6%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+329
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+124.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+19.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
+5.3
Final Difference
279.0
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
31
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
4
16
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
26
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U