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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ browns week 2, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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BAL logo
BALRavens
1-0
25
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
74°F
7 mph
20
CLEBrowns
0-1
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
74°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
7
6
23
Browns
20
0
0
0
20

Spread

BAL logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
382
387
Total Plays
71
59
Yards / Play
5.4
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
242
Comp/Att
25/45(56%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.27
Rushing Yards
80
145
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
63%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
10
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.65
-3.16
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-4.35
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
29
59
Penalty EPA
-3.36
-8.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+24.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
Value
Ptile
09/20
6.8
90
09/27
6.1
87
10/01
-8.0
4
10/11
2.8
72
10/18
2.1
65
10/26
-1.5
40
11/01
3.0
73
11/15
5.7
85
11/22
-1.2
42
09/11
-1.5
36
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
Value
Ptile
12/21
-13.2
1
12/28
-6.9
11
09/13
-3.2
27
09/27
-2.9
29
10/04
5.5
84
10/11
9.9
96
10/18
-5.6
13
10/25
1.4
61
11/01
1.1
58
11/30
-0.9
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Ravens logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30

EPA

EPA / Play
19
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
15
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
30
4th Down Efficiency
26
29
RZ Efficiency
19
29
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Browns logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5

EPA

EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
27
11
EPA / Rush
23
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
19
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
15
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
P
U
11/30
6
W
W
O
12/06
-2
L
W
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-20
L
L
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/03
-8
L
W
U
09/11
6
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-14
L
L
O
11/05
-21
L
L
U
11/15
-21
L
L
U
11/30
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-34
L
L
U
12/13
14
W
W
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
12/27
-4
L
W
U
01/03
-16
L
L
U
09/11
-19
L
L
U