BALRavens
1-0
25
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
74°F
7 mph
20
CLEBrowns
0-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
74°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
7
6
23
Browns
20
0
0
0
20
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
387
Total Plays
71
59
Yards / Play
5.4
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
242
Comp/Att
25/45(56%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.27
Rushing Yards
80
145
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
63%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
10
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.65
-3.16
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-4.35
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
29
59
Penalty EPA
-3.36
-8.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+24.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30
EPA
EPA / Play
19
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
30
4th Down Efficiency
26
29
RZ Efficiency
19
29
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
27
11
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
19
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
16
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
15
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U