BALRavens
1-1
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
71°F
23 mph
21
CLEBrowns
1-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
71°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
7
6
23
Browns
7
0
14
0
21
Spread
2
P
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
375
Total Plays
64
55
Yards / Play
5.9
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.76
Rushing Yards
160
85
Rush Attempts
33
30
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
33%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.56
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
12
Penalty Yards
32
94
Penalty EPA
-2.88
-10.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
-16.8
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
5
8
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
13
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
20
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
29
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
23
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
22
23
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
19
21
Fumbles / Game
4
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U