BALRavens
5-2
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
52°F
4 mph
29
CLEBrowns
1-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
52°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
7
7
24
Browns
3
3
14
9
29
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
401
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.15
Passing Yards
263
321
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.28
Rushing Yards
124
80
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
20%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.21
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-26
-13
Sack EPA
-4.62
-4.42
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
53
74
Penalty EPA
-4.95
-8.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-174
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,642
Home Field
+24.1
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.8
Away QB Adjustment
+38.3
Market Regression
+30.0
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+38.3
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
1
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
3
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
19
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
22
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
32
21
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
2
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U