BALRavens
3-7
33
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
45°F
9 mph
27
CLEBrowns
2-8
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
45°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
4
7
7
3
21
Browns
0
13
1
7
21
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
338
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
5.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
275
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
28/48(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.08
Rushing Yards
104
63
Rush Attempts
24
18
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
18%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.90
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-2.29
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-5.87
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
Ravens+6.0
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,355
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+72.7
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
-27.6
Home Bye Adj
+17.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+84.6
Home QB Adjustment
+18.9
Away QB Adjustment
-65.7
Market Regression
+78.1
Final Difference
93.4
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-65.7
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
29
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
29
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
26
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
24
20
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
29
21
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
18
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
3-7
SU
1-7-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U