BALRavens
8-4
22
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
14 mph
24
CLEBrowns
6-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
6
3
13
22
Browns
10
8
0
0
18
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
290
Total Plays
70
61
Yards / Play
5.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.13
Passing Yards
271
--
Comp/Att
31/43(72%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.06
Rushing Yards
118
100
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
8%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.59
-5.57
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-15.42
--
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
129
42
Penalty EPA
-16.80
-5.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model51.0%
Spread Pick
Ravens+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+44.8
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
+10.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.6
Home QB Adjustment
-25.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.3
Market Regression
+23.0
Final Difference
7.0
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-25.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
16
21
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
13
28
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
18
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
4
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
12
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U