BALRavens
3-2
48
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
6 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
1-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
28
10
7
3
48
Buccaneers
0
0
10
7
17
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
364
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
7.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.44
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
277
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.98
-0.18
Rushing Yards
169
87
Rush Attempts
35
18
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
54%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.79
-5.82
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-37
Sack EPA
--
-9.46
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
70
43
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-5.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-55.7
Home QB Adjustment
-48.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-48.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
25
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
18
EPA
EPA / Play
5
24
EPA / Pass
6
28
EPA / Rush
13
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
26
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
5
24
RZ Efficiency
14
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
30
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
27
Rushing Yards / Game
29
3
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
25
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
31
21
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
6
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
18
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U