BALRavens
4-2
41
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
8 mph
31
TBBuccaneers
4-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
17
17
7
41
Buccaneers
10
0
0
21
31
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
508
483
Total Plays
54
80
Yards / Play
9.4
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.41
+0.11
Passing Yards
264
358
Comp/Att
17/22(77%)
31/47(66%)
Yards / Pass
12.0
7.6
EPA / Pass
+1.14
+0.26
Rushing Yards
244
125
Rush Attempts
30
30
Yards / Rush
8.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
28
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
38%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
8
17
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.18
-8.42
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-14
Sack EPA
-2.87
-3.52
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
85
75
Penalty EPA
-9.02
-8.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+45.1
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.9
Home QB Adjustment
+18.2
Away QB Adjustment
+31.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+31.2
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
3
EPA
EPA / Play
1
18
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
1
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
18
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
15
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
24
RZ Efficiency
1
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
7
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
24
21
Fumbles / Game
19
29
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U