BALRavens
1-5
18
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
026
ARICardinals
4-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
0
8
18
Cardinals
7
7
6
6
26
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
414
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.12
Passing Yards
223
264
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.34
Rushing Yards
55
150
Rush Attempts
16
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.23
+4.88
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-31
-11
Sack EPA
-6.19
-3.88
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
64
40
Penalty EPA
-11.96
-3.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+18.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
+47.4
Final Difference
232.8
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
13
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
26
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
27
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Cardinals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
16
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
23
32
Fumbles / Game
28
15
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
11
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U