BALRavens
5-2
31
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
024
ARICardinals
1-6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
7
7
10
31
Cardinals
7
0
0
17
24
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
312
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
4.5
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.12
Passing Yards
138
181
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.26
Rushing Yards
130
131
Rush Attempts
29
33
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.13
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-19
-27
Sack EPA
-4.84
-4.37
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
70
Penalty EPA
-8.01
-9.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-217
Home nfelo
1,357
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+58.7
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
-39.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+29.6
Market Regression
-41.3
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+29.6
R. Dobbs
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
6
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
6
31
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
30
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
7
23
Cardinals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
2
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
15
10
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
5
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U