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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ cardinals week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BAL logo
BALRavens
5-2
31
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
24
ARICardinals
1-6
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
7
7
10
31
Cardinals
7
0
0
17
24

Spread

ARI logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
268
312
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
4.5
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.12
Passing Yards
138
181
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.26
Rushing Yards
130
131
Rush Attempts
29
33
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.13
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-19
-27
Sack EPA
-4.84
-4.37
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
70
Penalty EPA
-8.01
-9.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-217
Home nfelo
1,357
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+58.7
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
-39.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+29.6
Market Regression
-41.3
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.6
Value
Ptile
11/20
-1.3
44
11/27
2.9
75
12/04
-6.4
12
09/10
-3.7
26
09/17
7.9
93
09/24
6.1
87
10/01
6.7
90
10/08
-2.7
31
10/15
2.5
67
10/22
13.8
100
R. Dobbs headshot

R. Dobbs

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
12/29
-2.4
33
01/07
-4.1
23
09/10
-5.1
19
09/17
7.3
92
09/24
5.1
82
10/01
7.2
92
10/08
-7.8
9
10/15
-2.6
32
10/22
-2.6
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Ravens logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
6
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32

EPA

EPA / Play
6
31
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
4
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
30
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
7
23
Cardinals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Cardinals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
12

EPA

EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
2
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
15
10
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
5
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-3
L
L
U
01/08
-11
L
P
O
01/15
-7
L
W
O
09/10
16
W
W
U
09/17
3
W
W
O
09/24
-3
L
L
U
10/01
25
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
8
W
W
U
10/22
32
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
-3
L
W
U
01/01
-1
L
W
U
01/08
-25
L
L
O
09/10
-4
L
W
U
09/17
-3
L
W
O
09/24
12
W
W
O
10/01
-19
L
L
O
10/08
-14
L
L
O
10/15
-17
L
L
U
10/22
-10
L
L
U