nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ chargers week 2, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BAL logo
BALRavens
1-0
31
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
83°F
8 mph
26
LACChargers
1-0
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
83°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
14
7
3
31
Chargers
10
6
7
3
26

Spread

BAL logo
+0

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
311
474
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
5.2
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.11
Passing Yards
181
421
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.23
Rushing Yards
130
53
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.84
-7.70
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-15
Sack EPA
-1.22
-3.72
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
32
85
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-11.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
N/A
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model45.4%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
ChargersN/A
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+5.2
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.7
Market Regression
-56.8
Final Difference
31.9
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Value
Ptile
11/23
-1.2
43
11/30
4.5
81
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
-8.2
6
12/20
-2.6
30
12/28
1.8
64
01/04
-1.1
44
01/10
0.5
55
01/18
-11.1
2
09/13
4.9
82
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
11/16
-5.2
14
11/23
7.6
94
11/30
-4.1
21
12/04
5.4
86
12/14
4.4
80
12/21
9.6
97
12/28
2.7
70
01/03
-4.9
16
01/11
4.1
78
09/14
-0.3
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Ravens logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
14
12
Passing Yards / Game
19
26
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
23
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
4
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
25
Interceptions / Game
13
20
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
15
18
Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Chargers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
31
3

EPA

EPA / Play
1
4
EPA / Pass
1
3
EPA / Rush
28
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
17
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
3
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
10
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
29
W
W
P
11/30
31
W
W
P
12/07
14
W
W
P
12/14
-4
L
L
P
12/20
9
W
W
P
12/28
20
W
W
P
01/04
18
W
W
P
01/10
3
W
W
P
01/18
-9
L
L
P
09/13
14
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-1
L
W
P
11/23
-3
L
L
P
11/30
-6
L
L
P
12/04
27
W
W
P
12/14
1
W
L
P
12/21
17
W
W
P
12/28
31
W
W
P
01/03
6
W
W
P
01/11
-11
L
L
P
09/14
4
W
L
O