BALRavens
8-2
16
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
1 mph
13
LACChargers
4-6
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
0
0
3
10
3
16
Chargers
0
10
0
3
0
13
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
443
280
Total Plays
91
65
Yards / Play
4.9
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.00
Passing Yards
316
189
Comp/Att
30/51(59%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.16
Rushing Yards
127
91
Rush Attempts
35
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
12
3
3rd Down Attempts
24
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
6
Sack Yards
-39
-39
Sack EPA
-6.96
-9.87
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
60
37
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-4.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-17.4
Home QB Adjustment
-12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
4.9
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
11
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
13
13
EPA / Rush
17
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
3
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
26
8
RZ Efficiency
6
32
Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
28
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
23
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
13
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U