BALRavens
8-3
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
010
LACChargers
4-6
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
3
7
20
Chargers
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
279
Total Plays
69
66
Yards / Play
5.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.31
Passing Yards
164
193
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
29/44(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.44
Rushing Yards
197
86
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-12.50
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-24
Sack EPA
-2.35
-7.04
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
41
Penalty EPA
--
-5.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.9%
Spread Pick
Chargers+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+83.9
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+23.9
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
+13.2
Final Difference
-34.0
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
1
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
20
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
12
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
30
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
28
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12
EPA
EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
31
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
3
10
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
13
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U