BALRavens
10-3
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
58°F
7 mph
34
LACChargers
6-7
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
58°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
0
7
14
Chargers
7
10
14
3
34
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
415
Total Plays
56
60
Yards / Play
5.2
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.37
Passing Yards
201
--
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.98
Rushing Yards
89
145
Rush Attempts
14
37
Yards / Rush
6.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.77
--
Sacks
7
--
Sack Yards
-43
--
Sack EPA
-2.87
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-2.82
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model48.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,644
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
14.0
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
20
EPA
EPA / Play
15
29
EPA / Pass
12
28
EPA / Rush
18
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
25
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
23
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
2
RZ Efficiency
17
26
Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
3
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
10
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U