BALRavens
-
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
8 mph
27
KCChiefs
-
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
3
0
10
20
Chiefs
7
6
7
7
27
Spread
-3
Total
PUSH
47
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
452
353
Total Plays
74
50
Yards / Play
6.1
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.17
Passing Yards
267
281
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.40
Rushing Yards
185
72
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.58
-3.80
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-10
Sack EPA
-5.58
-2.73
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
64
45
Penalty EPA
-8.73
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,653
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+54.7
Base HFA
+46.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
1
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
1
17
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
19
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
1
EPA
EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
12
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
14
21
Fumbles / Game
5
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
2
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U