BALRavens
1-2
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
89°F
10 mph
37
KCChiefs
1-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
89°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
3
3
7
20
Chiefs
3
17
10
7
37
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
382
Total Plays
53
70
Yards / Play
6.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.23
Passing Yards
194
264
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.44
Rushing Yards
166
118
Rush Attempts
17
32
Yards / Rush
9.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.46
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.45
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-5
-6
Sack EPA
-6.68
-0.77
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
56
40
Penalty EPA
-5.64
-6.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,662
Home Field
+45.2
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+3.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
8
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22
EPA
EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
3
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
16
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
27
EPA
EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
10
23
EPA / Rush
4
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
3
Interceptions / Game
2
24
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U