BALRavens
12-4
30
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
26°F
15 mph
7
KCChiefs
10-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
26°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
13
7
30
Chiefs
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
161
Total Plays
78
40
Yards / Play
5.0
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.35
Passing Yards
248
53
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
9/18(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
2.9
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.62
Rushing Yards
142
108
Rush Attempts
40
19
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
8
Passing 1st downs
19
2
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
53%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
8
Red Zone %
40%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-5.04
-8.65
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-17
-17
Sack EPA
-8.51
-3.39
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
20
40
Penalty EPA
+2.86
-7.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
18
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
20
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
1
3
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
7
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
9
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U