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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ chiefs week 18, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BAL logo
BALRavens
12-4
30
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
26°F
15 mph
7
KCChiefs
10-6
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
26°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
13
7
30
Chiefs
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

BAL logo
-3

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
390
161
Total Plays
78
40
Yards / Play
5.0
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.35
Passing Yards
248
53
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
9/18(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
2.9
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.62
Rushing Yards
142
108
Rush Attempts
40
19
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
26
8
Passing 1st downs
19
2
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
53%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
8
Red Zone %
40%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-5.04
-8.65
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-17
-17
Sack EPA
-8.51
-3.39
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
20
40
Penalty EPA
+2.86
-7.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
10/24
2.2
63
11/07
2.7
67
11/11
2.0
61
11/21
3.4
72
11/28
1.6
58
12/05
-0.9
43
12/13
-1.5
40
12/19
-1.4
41
12/26
-1.0
43
01/02
-7.1
10
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Value
Ptile
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-2.9
30
11/07
-0.2
48
11/14
9.5
96
11/21
2.7
67
11/28
9.6
97
12/05
-2.2
34
12/19
-4.3
21
12/26
9.2
96
01/02
-15.3
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Ravens logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
13
14
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16

EPA

EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
18
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
20
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Chiefs Offense vs Ravens Defense
Chiefs logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
18
3
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
1
3

EPA

EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
7
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
9
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
7
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
3
W
L
O
11/07
16
W
W
U
11/11
-5
L
L
O
11/21
24
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
U
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
O
12/19
6
W
W
O
12/26
10
W
W
U
01/02
6
W
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
3
W
L
U
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
-20
L
L
O
11/21
18
W
W
U
11/28
18
W
W
O
12/05
4
W
L
U
12/12
-31
L
L
U
12/19
14
W
W
U
12/26
20
W
W
O
01/02
-21
L
L
U