BALRavens
3-1
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
2-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
3
0
10
13
Colts
3
3
7
7
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
432
Total Plays
57
80
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.02
Passing Yards
197
305
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
32/49(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.04
Rushing Yards
90
127
Rush Attempts
15
30
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
9
19
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
9%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-3.81
-8.35
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-38
-7
Sack EPA
-10.64
-1.42
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
36
83
Penalty EPA
-5.15
-8.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.5
Home QB Adjustment
+35.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+35.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
12
9
Passing Yards / Game
30
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
6
5
EPA / Rush
13
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
14
32
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
32
Interceptions / Game
24
21
Fumbles / Game
30
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U