BALRavens
10-7
3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
14-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
0
0
0
3
Colts
3
14
0
3
20
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
275
Total Plays
55
71
Yards / Play
4.9
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.04
Passing Yards
183
233
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
30/44(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.17
Rushing Yards
87
42
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
4.6
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.90
-1.10
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-13
Sack EPA
-1.73
-2.77
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
64
25
Penalty EPA
-7.42
-3.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model60.7%
Spread Pick
Ravens+6.5
Expected Value
+20.4%
Cover Probability
63.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-12.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
75.5
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
8
2
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
4
3
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
17
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
2
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Colts
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U