BALRavens
0-2
28
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
025
DALCowboys
1-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
14
7
7
0
28
Cowboys
3
3
0
19
25
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
456
412
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
7.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
361
Comp/Att
12/15(80%)
28/53(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.71
+0.03
Rushing Yards
274
51
Rush Attempts
45
16
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
16
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
44%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.28
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-4.93
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
105
--
Penalty EPA
-13.17
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model47.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+71.6
Base HFA
+46.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.4
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
-18.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.9
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
20.7
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Cowboys Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
32
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1
EPA
EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
29
11
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
30
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
32
29
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U