BALRavens
5-4
17
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
027
DALCowboys
8-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
3
0
7
17
Cowboys
0
10
7
10
27
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
417
Total Plays
52
67
Yards / Play
7.1
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.20
Passing Yards
267
299
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.49
Rushing Yards
101
118
Rush Attempts
16
30
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
27
Passing 1st downs
10
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-2
Sack EPA
-1.25
-1.70
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
136
45
Penalty EPA
-12.26
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+66.9
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+44.5
Home QB Adjustment
+33.5
Away QB Adjustment
-11.0
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+33.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
8
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
24
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
2
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
17
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Cowboys Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
2
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
19
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U