BALRavens
4-7
13
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
21 mph
15
MIADolphins
4-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
21 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
3
7
3
13
Dolphins
0
9
0
0
9
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
221
Total Plays
75
47
Yards / Play
5.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.26
Passing Yards
281
82
Comp/Att
32/46(70%)
9/19(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.30
Rushing Yards
94
139
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
8
Passing 1st downs
18
3
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.51
-3.92
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-4
Sack EPA
-6.46
-0.77
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
36
31
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-4.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+81.8
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+58.5
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-60.7
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-60.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
18
Yards / Game
14
25
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
22
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
26
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
24
22
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
24
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
20
24
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
20
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U