BALRavens
7-5
28
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
10 mph
13
MIADolphins
7-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
7
14
28
Dolphins
10
0
0
3
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
447
249
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
6.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.05
Passing Yards
264
186
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.08
Rushing Yards
183
63
Rush Attempts
31
16
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.76
--
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-5
-41
Sack EPA
-1.70
-8.20
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
36
--
Penalty EPA
-4.34
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
23
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
3
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
15
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
8
21
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U