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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ dolphins week 14, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
7-5
28
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
10 mph
13
MIADolphins
7-5
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
7
14
28
Dolphins
10
0
0
3
13

Spread

BAL logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
447
249
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
6.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.05
Passing Yards
264
186
Comp/Att
25/33(76%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.08
Rushing Yards
183
63
Rush Attempts
31
16
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.76
--
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-5
-41
Sack EPA
-1.70
-8.20
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
36
--
Penalty EPA
-4.34
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Value
Ptile
09/21
-0.6
46
09/28
9.5
95
10/05
-6.0
15
10/12
10.6
97
10/19
-1.2
42
10/26
-6.7
12
11/02
0.4
51
11/09
-1.4
40
11/24
2.3
67
11/30
4.8
81
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Value
Ptile
09/21
-5.5
17
09/28
5.9
85
10/12
3.2
72
10/19
6.1
87
10/26
-2.0
36
11/02
10.4
97
11/09
-1.6
39
11/13
3.1
72
11/23
6.3
87
12/01
-2.2
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Ravens logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
23

EPA

EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Dolphins Offense vs Ravens Defense
Dolphins logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
3

EPA

EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
15
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
8
21
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
21
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
2
W
P
O
09/28
28
W
W
O
10/05
-7
L
L
U
10/12
31
W
W
O
10/19
22
W
W
U
10/26
-3
L
L
O
11/02
-20
L
L
O
11/09
14
W
W
U
11/24
7
W
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-19
L
L
O
09/28
24
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
13
W
W
U
10/26
14
W
W
U
11/02
37
W
W
U
11/09
-4
L
L
U
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
U