BALRavens
2-0
19
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
88°F
8 mph
17
JAXJaguars
0-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
88°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
6
3
3
19
Jaguars
0
7
7
3
17
Spread
2
P
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
216
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
4.4
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.22
Passing Yards
199
168
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.28
Rushing Yards
84
48
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
23%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.07
-3.99
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-15
-26
Sack EPA
-2.91
-4.44
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
58
75
Penalty EPA
-5.18
-6.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.9
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
-5.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18
EPA
EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
26
9
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
18
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
2
24
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
9
4th Down Efficiency
26
12
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
6
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U