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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ jaguars week 3, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BAL logo
BALRavens
2-0
7
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
10 mph
44
JAXJaguars
1-1
JAX logo
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
0
7
7
Jaguars
10
13
14
7
44

Spread

JAX logo
+3

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
186
410
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
3.4
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.38
+0.32
Passing Yards
52
--
Comp/Att
14/27(52%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
1.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.67
+0.42
Rushing Yards
134
166
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
27%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.93
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.78
--
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
88
70
Penalty EPA
-13.20
-8.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-118
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.0
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
11/10
1.8
63
11/20
1.6
61
11/27
0.2
50
12/04
11.7
99
12/12
4.3
80
12/18
-4.5
16
12/25
0.7
55
01/01
-2.4
30
09/10
-4.6
22
09/17
0.1
53
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
11/13
2.2
65
11/20
-2.3
31
11/27
2.2
66
12/04
-3.6
23
12/11
-0.3
46
12/18
-8.9
4
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
3.0
72
09/10
-0.6
47
09/17
-3.2
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
27
3
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17

EPA

EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
20
1
EPA / Rush
14
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
29
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
1
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
1
16

EPA

EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
6
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
1
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
21
W
W
U
11/20
-10
L
L
U
11/27
5
W
W
U
12/04
32
W
W
O
12/12
-7
L
L
O
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/25
-4
L
W
O
01/01
-17
L
L
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/17
14
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-3
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
W
O
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/24
21
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/10
22
W
W
U
09/17
-21
L
L
O