BALRavens
4-1
7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
60°F
012
JAXJaguars
1-5
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
60°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
0
7
7
Jaguars
3
3
3
3
12
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
146
205
Total Plays
53
66
Yards / Play
2.8
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.19
Passing Yards
112
73
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
9/20(45%)
Yards / Pass
2.9
3.6
EPA / Pass
-0.30
-0.64
Rushing Yards
34
132
Rush Attempts
12
42
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.66
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
13
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.52
-4.74
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-25
-20
Sack EPA
-4.46
-7.48
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
85
90
Penalty EPA
-12.86
-7.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-212
Home nfelo
1,359
Away nfelo
1,669
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
-19.0
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
13
9
Rushing Yards / Game
12
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
12
13
EPA / Rush
18
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
23
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
15
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
17
24
Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
3
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
25
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
16
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
20
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U