BALRavens
6-5
14
TBD
Lambeau Field
21°F
4 mph
27
GBPackers
7-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
21°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
14
0
14
Packers
3
14
0
10
27
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
185
350
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
3.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
119
256
Comp/Att
15/36(42%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.40
+0.12
Rushing Yards
66
94
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
6
3rd Down %
46%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-19.74
-8.95
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-3.59
-1.11
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
125
175
Penalty EPA
-12.06
-13.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,609
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+21.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
14
8
EPA / Rush
4
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
13
1
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
9
4th Down Efficiency
24
4
RZ Efficiency
15
28
Packers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
2
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
5
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
17
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
10
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U