BALRavens
3-0
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
64°F
2 mph
27
NEPatriots
2-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
64°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
0
1
7
15
Patriots
3
14
7
3
27
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
363
319
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
5.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
247
234
Comp/Att
27/47(57%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.08
Rushing Yards
116
85
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
6.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
64%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.23
-7.37
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-24
Sack EPA
-1.73
-10.67
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
85
41
Penalty EPA
-10.95
-2.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
-36.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
4
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
15
22
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
4
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
6
4
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-2-7
O/U