BALRavens
4-1
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
57°F
14 mph
23
NEPatriots
3-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
57°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Ravens
3
7
7
3
0
20
Patriots
7
0
3
10
3
23
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
394
Total Plays
72
73
Yards / Play
5.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.07
Passing Yards
278
267
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.03
Rushing Yards
99
127
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.99
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-7
-25
Sack EPA
-3.74
-3.62
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
67
78
Penalty EPA
-6.71
-8.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
8
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
18
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
3
2
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
23
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
22
22
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
3
EPA
EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
2
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
9
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
9
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U