BALRavens
7-5
23
TBD
Gillette Stadium
31°F
3 mph
30
NEPatriots
10-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
31°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
3
14
6
23
Patriots
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
496
Total Plays
68
65
Yards / Play
5.1
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.10
Passing Yards
306
401
Comp/Att
37/52(71%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
10.6
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.34
Rushing Yards
42
95
Rush Attempts
14
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.81
-10.76
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-4.01
-0.85
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
47
48
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-9.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
Patriots-6.0
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+251
Home nfelo
1,670
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+49.5
Home QB Adjustment
+58.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
202.1
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+58.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
1
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
15
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
2
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
2
11
EPA / Rush
16
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
14
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
6
25
RZ Efficiency
8
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U