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  1. nfelo...
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  3. ravens @ patriots week 18, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BAL logo
BALRavens
9-7
33
TBD
Gillette Stadium
20°F
12 mph
14
NEPatriots
10-6
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
20°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
24
0
3
6
33
Patriots
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

BAL logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
268
196
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
4.3
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
132
Comp/Att
4/10(40%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.1
EPA / Pass
-0.60
-0.67
Rushing Yards
234
64
Rush Attempts
53
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
3
9
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
63%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.00
-16.38
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-8.60
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
41
Penalty EPA
-2.17
-3.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Value
Ptile
11/01
2.0
63
11/08
-8.7
6
11/16
-2.8
32
11/22
0.9
55
11/29
0.8
55
12/07
-9.9
3
12/13
1.4
59
12/20
6.9
88
12/27
-4.3
23
01/03
-7.2
10
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
10/25
5.3
84
11/08
3.3
72
11/15
8.1
92
11/22
5.3
83
11/30
-2.1
38
12/06
4.8
81
12/13
-0.0
49
12/20
-2.8
32
12/27
10.5
98
01/03
-2.3
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Ravens logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19

EPA

EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
4
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
15
22
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Patriots logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
4
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3

EPA

EPA / Play
6
4
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
11
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
11
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
23
W
W
U
11/08
-10
L
L
U
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/22
-2
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
L
O
12/07
-13
L
L
U
12/13
45
W
W
O
12/20
24
W
W
U
12/27
-3
L
P
P
01/03
8
W
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
28
W
W
U
11/08
10
W
L
U
11/15
-1
L
P
O
11/22
17
W
W
P
11/30
-21
L
L
U
12/06
-1
L
L
U
12/13
10
W
L
U
12/20
7
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O