BALRavens
9-7
33
TBD
Gillette Stadium
20°F
12 mph
14
NEPatriots
10-6
TBD
Gillette Stadium
20°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
24
0
3
6
33
Patriots
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
196
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
4.3
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
132
Comp/Att
4/10(40%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.1
EPA / Pass
-0.60
-0.67
Rushing Yards
234
64
Rush Attempts
53
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
3
9
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
63%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.00
-16.38
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-8.60
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
41
Penalty EPA
-2.17
-3.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
4
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
15
22
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
4
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
6
4
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U