BALRavens
11-6
31
TBD
Gillette Stadium
20°F
12 mph
35
NEPatriots
12-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
20°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
14
7
7
3
31
Patriots
7
7
14
7
35
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
422
Total Plays
73
66
Yards / Play
5.9
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.25
Passing Yards
--
408
Comp/Att
28/45(62%)
34/51(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.37
Rushing Yards
136
14
Rush Attempts
28
13
Yards / Rush
4.9
1.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
29
Passing 1st downs
16
22
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
11%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.84
-2.62
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-2.90
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
65
60
Penalty EPA
-1.29
-6.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.6
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
12
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
9
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
9
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
13
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
7
23
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
5
12
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
3
EPA
EPA / Play
1
13
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
5
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
32
Interceptions / Game
6
21
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
30
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
11
RZ Efficiency
5
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U