BALRavens
12-6
28
TBD
Gillette Stadium
41°F
18 mph
13
NEPatriots
13-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
41°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
7
7
14
28
Patriots
3
10
0
0
13
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
428
Total Plays
71
82
Yards / Play
5.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.06
Passing Yards
235
--
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
29/54(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.02
Rushing Yards
121
108
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
28
Passing 1st downs
15
19
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
42%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.46
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.54
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
60
40
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,712
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
-50.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
17
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
17
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
30
Interceptions / Game
4
6
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
3
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
5
13
Fumbles / Game
8
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
13
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U