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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ raiders week 2, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
0-1
33
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
80°F
8 mph
37
OAKRaiders
0-1
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
80°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
10
10
0
13
33
Raiders
10
10
10
7
37

Spread

OAK logo
+6

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
493
448
Total Plays
70
66
Yards / Play
7.0
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.32
Passing Yards
--
351
Comp/Att
32/45(71%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.29
Rushing Yards
109
97
Rush Attempts
25
19
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
29
27
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
6
3rd Down %
36%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.75
-4.89
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-1.63
Penalties
10
16
Penalty Yards
109
106
Penalty EPA
-8.73
-9.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-112.6
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
11/09
-1.4
40
11/24
2.3
67
11/30
4.8
81
12/07
6.9
89
12/14
2.2
67
12/21
-9.2
5
12/28
5.0
82
01/03
1.7
63
01/10
4.8
81
09/13
-9.3
2
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.3
34
11/09
-1.0
43
11/16
-7.1
10
11/20
-2.5
32
11/30
-8.7
7
12/07
7.7
90
12/14
-5.8
16
12/21
1.6
62
12/28
-7.2
10
09/13
-4.1
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Raiders Defense
Ravens logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
25
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
13

EPA

EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
26
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
31
15
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
8
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
19
RZ Efficiency
24
10
Raiders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Raiders logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12

EPA

EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
20
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
30
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
27
15
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
8
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
14
W
W
U
11/24
7
W
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
15
W
W
U
12/14
8
W
L
U
12/21
-12
L
L
U
12/28
10
W
L
U
01/03
13
W
W
U
01/10
-4
L
W
O
09/13
-6
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-6
L
W
O
11/09
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
U
11/20
4
W
W
O
11/30
-52
L
L
O
12/07
11
W
W
U
12/14
-18
L
L
O
12/21
2
W
W
O
12/28
-33
L
L
O
09/13
-20
L
L
O