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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ rams week 3, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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BAL logo
BALRavens
1-1
37
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
7
LARRams
0-2
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
21
6
3
1
31
Rams
0
0
7
0
7

Spread

BAL logo
-6

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
553
244
Total Plays
76
63
Yards / Play
7.3
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.43
Passing Yards
385
132
Comp/Att
27/48(56%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.59
Rushing Yards
168
112
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
6.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-12.01
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-4
-34
Sack EPA
-6.08
-16.62
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
32
117
Penalty EPA
-5.59
-10.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
-53.8
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
11/28
1.6
58
12/05
-0.9
43
12/13
-1.5
40
12/19
-1.4
41
12/26
-1.0
43
01/02
-7.1
10
01/09
4.9
82
01/15
-7.3
9
09/11
4.8
80
09/18
-7.9
6
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Value
Ptile
11/14
2.9
69
11/21
3.7
74
11/28
4.3
78
12/05
-4.1
24
12/12
-4.1
23
12/19
-9.3
4
12/26
5.5
84
01/02
-8.3
6
09/11
-6.4
12
09/19
0.7
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Rams Defense
Ravens logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
15
21
Passing Yards / Game
13
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31

EPA

EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
18
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
1
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
23
29
Turnover EPA / Game
23
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
29
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Rams Offense vs Ravens Defense
Rams logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
31
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
3

EPA

EPA / Play
32
3
EPA / Pass
31
2
EPA / Rush
32
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
3
12
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
31
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
7
W
L
U
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
O
12/19
6
W
W
O
12/26
10
W
W
U
01/02
6
W
L
U
01/09
23
W
W
U
01/15
-7
L
L
O
09/11
28
W
W
O
09/18
-13
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
-3
L
W
O
11/21
-17
L
L
O
11/28
3
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
-18
L
L
U
12/19
-14
L
L
U
12/26
8
W
W
O
01/02
-10
L
L
U
09/11
-18
L
L
P
09/19
-12
L
L
O