BALRavens
6-4
34
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
027
NOSaints
4-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
7
4
10
28
Saints
7
10
0
10
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
525
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
7.9
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.12
Passing Yards
234
399
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
35/45(78%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.49
+0.19
Rushing Yards
215
126
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
6.7
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
69%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-8.34
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-1.12
-6.03
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
42
50
Penalty EPA
-8.78
-8.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
30
25
Rushing Yards / Game
9
29
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
13
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
23
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
14
31
Saints Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
7
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
25
21
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
7
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U