BALRavens
2-1
26
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
69°F
2 mph
14
PITSteelers
1-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
69°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
14
0
3
9
26
Steelers
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
286
Total Plays
74
60
Yards / Play
6.1
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.20
Passing Yards
355
267
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
27/48(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.18
Rushing Yards
96
19
Rush Attempts
30
11
Yards / Rush
3.2
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
20%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.94
-8.34
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-1.73
-0.89
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
40
Penalty EPA
-4.91
-2.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
12
6
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
5
EPA
EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
2
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
2
2
Rushing Yards / Game
31
3
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
6-3-1
SU
2-8
ATS
8-2
O/U