BALRavens
5-3
23
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
38°F
6 mph
43
PITSteelers
5-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
38°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
7
3
0
13
23
Steelers
0
22
0
21
43
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
378
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
5.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.25
Passing Yards
269
323
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.65
Rushing Yards
63
55
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.47
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
23%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.80
-4.96
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-34
-19
Sack EPA
-7.33
-3.03
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
108
67
Penalty EPA
-10.00
-2.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.1
Home QB Adjustment
+27.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+27.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
32
RZ Efficiency
14
19
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
3
23
EPA / Rush
19
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
21
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
20
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U