BALRavens
7-2
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
5 mph
10
PITSteelers
6-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
4
0
3
0
7
Steelers
7
0
3
0
10
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
200
309
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
3.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.22
Passing Yards
153
175
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.28
Rushing Yards
47
134
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
2.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
17
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
21%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.30
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-24
Sack EPA
-2.28
-5.35
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
68
43
Penalty EPA
-5.93
-4.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
Steelers+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-79.6
Home QB Adjustment
-71.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.9
Market Regression
-82.9
Final Difference
-37.5
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
B. Leftwich
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-71.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
7
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
12
16
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
29
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U