BALRavens
8-6
20
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
39°F
9 mph
23
PITSteelers
7-7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
39°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
3
7
10
0
20
Steelers
6
14
0
3
23
Spread
3
P
Total
PUSH
43
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
286
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.05
Passing Yards
148
238
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.09
Rushing Yards
175
48
Rush Attempts
38
23
Yards / Rush
4.6
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.50
-9.98
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-18
-21
Sack EPA
-6.09
-5.70
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
113
20
Penalty EPA
-6.34
-1.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model57.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+18
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
+40.3
Final Difference
55.6
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
22
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
4
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
15
6
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
14
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
26
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U