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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ steelers week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
8-8
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0
PITSteelers
9-7
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+24.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
-29.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-29.4
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.8
63
09/28
-2.0
36
10/30
4.3
78
11/09
-0.1
50
11/16
-8.6
4
11/23
-4.2
23
11/27
-5.4
15
12/07
0.3
54
12/14
-2.2
35
12/21
-3.4
27
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Value
Ptile
10/16
3.4
75
10/26
-0.1
50
11/02
-1.7
38
11/09
-8.2
4
11/16
-2.7
32
11/30
-4.2
22
12/07
5.7
88
12/15
3.5
75
12/21
1.6
62
12/28
-2.7
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Steelers Defense
Ravens logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12

EPA

EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
1
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
29
6
Steelers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Steelers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
15
18
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
29
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
8
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
13
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
14
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
U
11/09
8
W
W
U
11/16
7
W
L
O
11/23
13
W
L
U
11/27
-18
L
L
U
12/07
-5
L
L
O
12/14
24
W
W
U
12/21
-4
L
L
O
12/27
17
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-10
L
L
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-15
L
L
U
11/16
22
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
P
O
11/30
-19
L
L
U
12/07
5
W
W
O
12/15
13
W
W
P
12/21
5
W
W
O
12/28
-7
L
L
U