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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ texans week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
9-5
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
25
HOUTexans
7-7
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
7
6
13
Texans
3
13
3
6
25

Spread

HOU logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
211
313
Total Plays
69
81
Yards / Play
3.1
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.45
-0.21
Passing Yards
178
--
Comp/Att
21/51(41%)
21/43(49%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.22
Rushing Yards
33
123
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
21
Red Zone %
33%
14%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.89
-2.93
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-2.86
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
56
69
Penalty EPA
-9.48
-8.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model67.9%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-120.5
Home QB Adjustment
-94.2
Away QB Adjustment
+26.3
Market Regression
-38.2
Final Difference
-130.0
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.3
Value
Ptile
10/05
-6.0
15
10/12
10.6
97
10/19
-1.2
42
10/26
-6.7
12
11/02
0.4
51
11/09
-1.4
40
11/24
2.3
67
11/30
4.8
81
12/07
6.9
89
12/14
2.2
67
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-94.2
Value
Ptile
10/20
-0.9
45
11/03
8.7
93
11/10
0.7
55
11/17
-5.1
19
11/24
-7.3
10
12/01
-0.3
48
12/05
-3.3
29
12/15
-11.3
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Ravens logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9

EPA

EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
13
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
27
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Texans logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3

EPA

EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
14
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
11
21
Fumbles / Game
19
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
11
RZ Efficiency
15
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-7
L
L
U
10/12
31
W
W
O
10/19
22
W
W
U
10/26
-3
L
L
O
11/02
-20
L
L
O
11/09
14
W
W
U
11/24
7
W
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
15
W
W
U
12/14
8
W
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/20
-7
L
L
O
10/26
14
W
W
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/23
-9
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/07
14
W
W
U
12/14
-7
L
P
U