BALRavens
9-5
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
025
HOUTexans
7-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
0
7
6
13
Texans
3
13
3
6
25
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
211
313
Total Plays
69
81
Yards / Play
3.1
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.45
-0.21
Passing Yards
178
--
Comp/Att
21/51(41%)
21/43(49%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.22
Rushing Yards
33
123
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
21
Red Zone %
33%
14%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.89
-2.93
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-2.86
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
56
69
Penalty EPA
-9.48
-8.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model67.7%
Spread Pick
Texans+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-96
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-120.5
Home QB Adjustment
-94.2
Away QB Adjustment
+26.3
Market Regression
-37.1
Final Difference
-128.8
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.3
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-94.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
13
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
27
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
7
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
11
21
Fumbles / Game
19
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
11
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U