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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. ravens @ titans week 2, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BAL logo
BALRavens
1-0
13
TBD
Nissan Stadium
76°F
11 mph
26
TENTitans
0-1
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
76°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Ravens
0
10
0
3
13
Titans
0
10
10
6
26

Spread

TEN logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Ravens logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
229
432
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
4.4
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.08
Passing Yards
184
--
Comp/Att
15/32(47%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.32
Rushing Yards
45
74
Rush Attempts
17
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Ravens logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
30%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Ravens logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.05
-4.88
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-0.09
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
44
70
Penalty EPA
-6.00
-6.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model67.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-90
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-1.5
Final Difference
-125.7
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
11/21
3.4
72
11/28
1.6
58
12/05
-0.9
43
12/13
-1.5
40
12/19
-1.4
41
12/26
-1.0
43
01/02
-7.1
10
01/09
4.9
82
01/15
-7.3
9
09/11
4.8
80
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Value
Ptile
11/14
4.4
79
11/21
10.6
98
11/28
-2.2
34
12/05
-5.3
16
12/12
-2.1
36
12/19
-8.5
6
12/26
-1.9
37
01/08
5.5
85
01/16
2.8
68
09/11
1.1
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Ravens Offense vs Titans Defense
Ravens logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
15
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22

EPA

EPA / Play
15
15
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
18
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
5
24
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
17
10
Titans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Titans logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
22
3
Yards / Game
17
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3

EPA

EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
16
2
EPA / Rush
28
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
5
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
24
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
L
U
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
O
12/19
6
W
W
O
12/26
10
W
W
U
01/02
6
W
L
U
01/09
23
W
W
U
01/15
-7
L
L
O
09/11
28
W
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-8
L
L
O
11/14
-12
L
L
O
11/21
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-20
L
L
U
12/05
-11
L
L
U
12/09
-2
L
W
O
12/19
14
W
W
O
12/26
-20
L
L
O
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-2
L
L
U