NOSaints
1-0
25
TBD
Candlestick Park
65°F
10 mph
22
SF49ers
0-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
65°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
7
9
23
49ers
0
7
7
8
22
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
419
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
4.5
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.11
Passing Yards
237
--
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.01
Rushing Yards
50
142
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
2.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.26
-13.31
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-4.37
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
54
40
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-4.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-33.8
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
16
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
6
18
EPA / Rush
21
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
20
22
Turnover EPA / Game
13
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
19
9
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18
EPA
EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
15
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
30
Interceptions / Game
13
32
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
25
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
4-4-2
ATS
2-7-1
O/U