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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ 49ers week 2, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
1-0
25
TBD
Candlestick Park
65°F
10 mph
22
SF49ers
0-1
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
65°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
0
7
9
23
49ers
0
7
7
8
22

Spread

SF logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
287
419
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
4.5
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.11
Passing Yards
237
--
Comp/Att
28/38(74%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.01
Rushing Yards
50
142
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
2.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Saints logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.26
-13.31
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-4.37
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
54
40
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-4.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-33.8
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Value
Ptile
11/22
5.5
85
11/30
14.0
99
12/06
9.7
96
12/13
9.2
95
12/19
-0.0
49
12/27
7.9
92
01/16
7.4
90
01/24
3.0
69
02/07
8.6
94
09/09
3.5
72
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Value
Ptile
11/08
-3.7
26
11/12
-5.3
18
11/22
-0.7
45
11/29
4.8
81
12/06
4.5
79
12/14
-4.0
24
12/20
-8.4
6
12/27
0.1
51
01/03
-2.0
39
09/12
-5.8
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Saints logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
16
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6

EPA

EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
6
18
EPA / Rush
21
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
20
22
Turnover EPA / Game
13
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
19
9
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
49ers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18

EPA

EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
15
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
30
Interceptions / Game
13
32
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
25
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
21
W
W
U
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
L
U
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
01/16
31
W
W
O
01/24
3
W
L
O
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/09
5
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
4-4-2
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-7
L
L
O
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/22
-6
L
P
O
11/29
17
W
W
U
12/06
-3
L
L
U
12/14
15
W
W
U
12/20
-14
L
L
U
12/27
14
W
P
U
01/03
22
W
W
U
09/12
-25
L
L
P