NOSaints
4-7
0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
2 mph
13
SF49ers
6-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
0
0
0
49ers
3
7
3
0
13
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
317
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
4.9
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.05
Passing Yards
197
221
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.04
Rushing Yards
63
96
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.86
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-1
Sack EPA
-3.02
-4.30
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
46
64
Penalty EPA
-7.85
-8.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+201
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+61.5
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+46.8
Home QB Adjustment
+27.5
Away QB Adjustment
-19.3
Market Regression
-17.0
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.3
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
2
EPA
EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
29
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
27
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
21
20
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
9
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24
EPA
EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
23
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U