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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ 49ers week 12, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NO logo
NOSaints
4-7
0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
2 mph
13
SF49ers
6-4
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
59°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
0
0
0
0
49ers
3
7
3
0
13

Spread

SF logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
260
317
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
4.9
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.05
Passing Yards
197
221
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.04
Rushing Yards
63
96
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Saints logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.86
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-1
Sack EPA
-3.02
-4.30
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
46
64
Penalty EPA
-7.85
-8.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+201
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+61.4
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+46.8
Home QB Adjustment
+27.5
Away QB Adjustment
-19.3
Market Regression
-17.0
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-19.3
Value
Ptile
01/02
-6.1
14
01/09
-5.6
16
10/02
0.6
56
10/09
-3.3
26
10/16
-2.2
35
10/20
4.7
84
10/30
2.8
74
11/07
-5.2
17
11/13
-6.3
12
11/20
5.1
85
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
Value
Ptile
01/22
-9.1
6
01/30
1.4
63
09/25
-5.0
18
10/03
2.1
69
10/09
0.8
58
10/16
1.7
65
10/23
-3.2
27
10/30
3.9
80
11/13
1.7
65
11/21
5.8
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Saints logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
2

EPA

EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
29
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
27
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
21
20
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
49ers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
6
9
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24

EPA

EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
23
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
19
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-10
L
L
U
09/25
-8
L
L
U
10/02
-3
L
W
O
10/09
7
W
W
O
10/16
-4
L
L
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/30
24
W
W
U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
11/13
-10
L
L
U
11/20
7
W
W
O
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/18
20
W
W
U
09/25
-1
L
L
U
10/03
15
W
W
U
10/09
22
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
-21
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
O
11/13
6
W
L
U
11/21
28
W
W
O