NOSaints
14-3
32
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
2 mph
36
SF49ers
13-3
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
0
14
0
18
32
49ers
14
3
3
16
36
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
407
Total Plays
81
69
Yards / Play
5.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.16
Passing Yards
437
264
Comp/Att
40/64(63%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.03
Rushing Yards
37
143
Rush Attempts
14
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
23
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-15.74
+4.66
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-27
-35
Sack EPA
-5.75
-8.15
Penalties
--
3
Penalty Yards
--
33
Penalty EPA
--
-4.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,712
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-41.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
+46.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+46.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
1
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1
EPA
EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
2
5
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
16
2
Fumbles / Game
12
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
6
4
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
14
15
EPA / Rush
17
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
4
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U