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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. saints @ bengals week 13, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NO logo
NOSaints
8-3
34
TBD
Paycor Stadium
32°F
12 mph
30
CINBengals
2-9
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
32°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
10
7
14
34
Bengals
0
6
6
18
30

Spread

CIN logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
436
313
Total Plays
53
63
Yards / Play
8.2
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.44
+0.30
Passing Yards
290
217
Comp/Att
24/29(83%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.24
Rushing Yards
146
96
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
6.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
13%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.41
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-34
Sack EPA
-4.10
-3.06
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
100
43
Penalty EPA
-9.48
-8.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-125
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.2
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Value
Ptile
09/20
5.7
86
09/26
7.2
91
10/03
4.1
76
10/10
-1.3
42
10/17
5.9
87
10/24
-2.0
37
10/31
5.9
87
11/07
4.3
77
11/21
9.0
96
11/25
-0.2
47
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Value
Ptile
09/19
-3.5
26
09/26
-4.3
21
10/03
5.0
82
10/10
-1.7
39
10/24
9.9
98
10/31
-1.9
37
11/08
-1.0
43
11/14
-0.5
46
11/21
0.0
49
11/25
-9.2
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Bengals Defense
Saints logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
19

EPA

EPA / Play
8
28
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
21
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
20
17
Turnover EPA / Game
13
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Bengals Offense vs Saints Defense
Bengals logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18

EPA

EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
31
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
24
32
Fumbles / Game
26
6
Turnover EPA / Game
6
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
23
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
3
W
L
O
09/26
-3
L
L
O
10/03
2
W
L
U
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/17
25
W
W
U
10/24
-13
L
L
O
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/07
31
W
W
U
11/21
15
W
W
O
11/25
3
W
L
O
CIN logo

Bengals

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
5
W
W
U
09/26
13
W
W
U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
O
10/24
-7
L
L
O
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-18
L
L
O
11/25
-16
L
L
U