NOSaints
8-3
34
TBD
Paycor Stadium
32°F
12 mph
30
CINBengals
2-9
TBD
Paycor Stadium
32°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
3
10
7
14
34
Bengals
0
6
6
18
30
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
313
Total Plays
53
63
Yards / Play
8.2
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.44
+0.30
Passing Yards
290
217
Comp/Att
24/29(83%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.24
Rushing Yards
146
96
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
6.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
13%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.41
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-34
Sack EPA
-4.10
-3.06
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
100
43
Penalty EPA
-9.48
-8.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-125
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.2
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
19
EPA
EPA / Play
8
28
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
21
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
20
17
Turnover EPA / Game
13
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Bengals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
31
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
24
32
Fumbles / Game
26
6
Turnover EPA / Game
6
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
23
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U