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  1. nfelo...
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  3. saints @ bills week 3, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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  • Games
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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NO logo
NOSaints
2-0
27
TBD
New Era Field
64°F
9 mph
7
BUFBills
1-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
64°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
0
17
27
Bills
0
7
0
0
7

Spread

NO logo
-6

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Saints logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
378
243
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
5.5
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.18
Passing Yards
156
154
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.22
Rushing Yards
222
89
Rush Attempts
38
21
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.42
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Saints logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Saints logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-0.03
-3.77
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-27
Sack EPA
-6.78
-4.18
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
97
116
Penalty EPA
-11.48
-12.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+28.6
Market Regression
-30.1
Final Difference
-139.2
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
Value
Ptile
11/09
1.4
61
11/16
2.7
70
11/24
12.3
99
11/30
-0.7
47
12/07
3.1
73
12/11
-1.1
44
12/21
9.1
96
12/28
8.0
94
09/13
13.8
99
09/20
7.5
91
T. Edwards headshot

T. Edwards

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
10/26
-2.2
34
11/02
-3.2
26
11/09
-6.4
8
11/17
-2.9
28
11/23
13.7
100
11/30
-4.0
22
12/21
1.7
63
12/28
-3.2
27
09/14
1.4
58
09/20
3.1
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Saints Offense vs Bills Defense
Saints logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31

EPA

EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
2
2
EPA / Rush
7
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
4
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
4
20
Bills Offense vs Saints Defense
Bills logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
30
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22

EPA

EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
17
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
30
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
9
RZ Efficiency
32
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-0-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-14
L
L
P
11/16
10
W
W
P
11/24
22
W
W
P
11/30
-3
L
W
P
12/07
4
W
W
P
12/11
-3
L
P
P
12/21
35
W
W
P
12/28
-2
L
L
P
09/13
18
W
W
O
09/20
26
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-0-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-10
L
L
P
11/17
-2
L
L
P
11/23
23
W
W
P
11/30
-7
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
-4
L
W
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P
09/14
-1
L
W
O
09/20
13
W
W
O