NOSaints
2-0
27
TBD
New Era Field
64°F
9 mph
7
BUFBills
1-1
TBD
New Era Field
64°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Saints
7
3
0
17
27
Bills
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
243
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
5.5
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.18
Passing Yards
156
154
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.22
Rushing Yards
222
89
Rush Attempts
38
21
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.42
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-0.03
-3.77
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-27
Sack EPA
-6.78
-4.18
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
97
116
Penalty EPA
-11.48
-12.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+28.6
Market Regression
-30.1
Final Difference
-139.2
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Saints Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
2
2
EPA / Rush
7
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
4
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
4
20
Bills Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
30
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
17
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
30
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
9
RZ Efficiency
32
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Saints
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-0-8
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-0-8
O/U